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Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is ready.

That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Structures Not Ready

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have won."

Constitutional Provision

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but scarcely any elected officials or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They writes two pieces that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal figures, previous instances and governmental frameworks.

Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Debate indicates an acceptance of the concept that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"

Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."